Scaling back the capital gains tax discount might not help housing affordability — but there are still good reasons to do it

Patrick Commins’ Guardian analysis of the capital gains tax discount debate quoted Hugh at length. The core observation is uncomfortable for both camps: slashing tax breaks for property investors might not put much of a dent in house prices, but it can still make a meaningful difference to home ownership rates over the coming years.

Reading the submissions to the Greens-led Senate committee, and talking to economists, produces a series of convincing arguments for why the government might be on a winner if it finally finds the courage to prosecute this reform. Budget repair and horizontal equity are reasons enough. Treating CGT discount reform as a silver bullet for prices is not.

Originally published in The Guardian, 5 February 2026.

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